ryder cup analysis - betting

Europe's 1997 class were massive underdogs.

By Dave Tindall

1991 - ODDS-ON AMERICANS WIN WAR

Hills install the USA as 4/5 favourites to win the "War on the Shore" at Kiawah Island with Europe 11/10 and the tie 12/1.

The outcome remains in the balance all the way until Bernhard Langer agonisingly misses a four-footer on the last which gives the US a thrilling 14½-13½ victory.

Langer's missed putt on the final green costs Hills over £100,000.

"If Langer's putt had gone in we would have paid out just £38,000 to those punters who had bet on the tie. As it was we had to pay out over £150,000 to punters who bet on the Americans to win," says Hills spokesman Graham Sharpe.

1993 - US OUTSIDERS FOIL EURO GAMBLE

Europe are made favourites for the first time in Ryder Cup history.

After a flood of money for the home side, Hills, who had offered the Europeans at 6/4 before the previous week's Lancome Trophy, install Europe as 10/11 favourites.

The United States, who had been 4/5 shots, are pushed out to evens at the off with the tie 10/1.

Ladbrokes go 10/11 the pair with 12/1 on offer for the tie.

The most popular winning margin is 15 points to 13 for either side, on offer at 8/1 with Hills.

Europe are 5/6 favourites with Hills after they take a 4½-3½ lead at the end of the first day's play. Hills quote the US at 6/5 with a tie 8/1.

Europe maintain their one-point advantage after sharing the eight points on offer on day two and go into the final day as 4/5 favourites with Hills, who quote the Americans at 6/5.

Despite the closeness of the game, the tie remains an 8/1 chance.

But it's the odds-against Americans who win the day and prove the bookies wrong as they win the singles 7½-4½ to win the match 15-13.

There's a three-way tie in the top US points market with Corey Pavin (12/1), Ray Floyd (14/1) and Payne Stewart (14/1) all banking three points.

Ian Woosnam racks up an almost perfect 4½pts to finish top Euro points scorer at 9/2.

1995 - 15/8 OUTSIDERS EUROPE RECLAIM CUP

America go into the Ryder Cup as 1/2 favourites at Hills, with Europe 15/8 and the tie 10/1.

"The bigger bets are coming in for the Yanks, but we've had more small bets on Europe," says Hills spokesman Graham Sharpe. "There's about £2million riding on the outcome. I'm sure it would have been more with terrestrial television coverage," he adds after Sky win the TV rights for the first time.

Colin Montgomerie and Nick Faldo are joint 3/1 favourites to top score for Europe with 7/2 Corey Pavin heading the US lists.

With the Americans taking a 9-7 lead into the singles, those who took the 15/8 on Europe aren't hopeful but the visitors produce a stunning display to overturn the odds-on favourites.

Pavin justifies favouritism by top scoring for the US with four points but on the European side three relatively unfancied players tie for top spot with three points apiece - David Gilford (25/1), Costantino Rocca (20/1) and Sam Torrance (8/1).

1997 - 3/1 EUROPE UPSET FORM BOOK

With Tiger Woods making his debut and the Europeans fielding five rookies, Seve Ballesteros' men are as big as 3/1 in the build-up to the battle at Valderrama.

By the off, they have been cut to a top-priced 9/4 but still remain big outsiders with America quoted no better than the Tote's 8/15.

But inspired by Seve, the home side lead 10½-5½ after day two and go into the final day singles as 1/5 shots.

The Americans are available at 7/1 and so nearly pull it back but Europe hold on to win by a point - the 14½-13½ winning scoreline a pre-tournament 10/1 shot.

4/1 Colin Montgomerie rewards favourite backers on the top Euro points scorer market and his decision to shake hands with Scott Hoch at the last when the Cup is already won decides the top US scorer market.

Hoch, who faces a 20ft putt before Monty signals for him to pick his ball up, is gift-wrapped a halve that takes him to 2½pts and out of a seven-way tie on 2. His lucky backers land a 20/1 touch while backers of the 15-13 scoreline in favour of Europe are left cursing their misfortune.

1999 - LATE CHARGE RESCUES 1/3 YANKS

The star-studded US team are as short as 2/7 to win back the Cup with Europe available at 11/4. But Mark James, who two years earlier had been quoted at 3/1 by Coral to be the next skipper, almost guides his team to a brilliant victory.

Europe carve out a 10-6 lead after day two but once again the US thrive in the singles and fight back superbly to win 14½-13½ - a 12/1 chance at the start the week.

Tiger Woods is the 11/4 favourite to be top US scorer but it's 14/1 chance Hal Sutton who comes out on top with three wins and a halve.

3½pts is also the magic number on the European side but four players share top spot - Colin Montgomerie (11/4 favourite), Sergio Garcia (6/1), Jesper Parnevik (7/1) and Paul Lawrie (22/1).

2002 - 15/8 EUROPE'S SUNDAY BEST

With the September 11th terrorist attacks in New York forcing the Ryder Cup to be put back a year, both teams stick with the original line-ups chosen 12 months earlier.

The perception is that the European team contains more players that have lost form so the USA are sent off as red-hot 1/2 favourites to retain their trophy with Europe as big as 15/8.

Yet again Europe make a good start and take the first day lead. It's the seventh time in the last eight they've led after day one so it's surprising that odds-against quotes were available.

The US rally on day two and the scores are levelled at 8-8.

Given their traditional superiority in the singles - the Americans had won the singles in six of the previous seven Ryder Cups - it's no surprise that the bookies make the US 2/5 to lift the trophy ahead of Sunday's play.

Europe have other ideas though and with Sam Torrance putting his big guns out first they gain unstoppable momentum and win the singles convincingly to secure the match 15½-12½

Colin Montgomerie top scores for Europe with 4½ points out of five and rewards backers who took the massive 9/1 - a price inflated by rumours of Monty having a bad back.

Rookie David Toms, with 3½ points, is the top US points scorer and is also a 9/1 chance.

2004 - UNDERDOGS MAUL AMERICANS

After years of nail-biting finishes, 13/8 underdogs Europe turn the 2004 Ryder Cup at Oakland Hills in Detroit into a one-sided rout.

The tone is set on day one as Bernhard Langer's meticulously prepared side race into a 6½-1½ lead against a US team which had started as 4/7 favourites.

The 'dream team' of Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson is turned over not once but twice and the bookies slash Europe to just 1/3 to win the trophy again.

Europe edge further in front on day two and also win the singles 7½-4½ on Sunday to seal a staggering nine-shot winning margin.

The correct score of Europe 18½ USA 9½ was a 175/1 shot pre-tournament!

Sergio Garcia (11/4) and Lee Westwood (10/1) are Europe's top points scorers with 4½ while Chris DiMarco's 2½ points is enough to see him top the US market. DiMarco was a 16/1 shot to score most for Hal Sutton's hapless side.

The bookies claim there was £10m riding on the event, the highest turnover on any Ryder Cup.

Despite the one-sided nature of the contest, Hills are still reluctant to make Europe favourites for the 2006 event at the K Club in Ireland and offer the two sides as Even money joint favourites with the tie 9/1.

SUMMARY

Oppose the favourites is the message for punters hoping to land a coup on the Ryder Cup.

In the past seven matches, the odds-on favourites have been turned over five times. And on the other two occasions there's been only a point in it.

Simply opposing the favourites blindly at the prices quoted on the first morning would have produced winners of 6/5 (1993), 15/8 (1995), 9/4 (1997), 15/8 (2002) and 13/8 (2004).

So a £100 investment on the underdogs in the last seven Ryder Cups would have netted a profit of £682.50

History also shows that whoever wins will do so by a narrow margin.

The above table shows that no more than two points

eparated the two sides in the seven Ryder Cups between 1987 and 1999.

However, Europe increased the gap to three in 2002 and demolished the Americans by nine points last time.

History suggests the 2004 result was something of a freak though so, looking at the bigger picture, it would be reasonable to expect another close contest in 2006.

Putting together the ideas of close contests and the great record of underdogs, the best betting strategy this year would appear to be backing the USA to win by one or two points.