ryder cup analysis - wildcards

Monty - justified Bernhard Langer's faith in 2004.

By Dave Tindall

The wildcard issue is never out of the headlines in the build-up to the Ryder Cup.

Both captains' every move and utterance are analysed in ludicrous detail for clues or tells and their final announcements are awaited with the same anticipation afforded Oscar winners or new Popes.

But do these wildcard selections really have such an impact on the destination of the Ryder Cup?

Or are they, in every sense, just making up the numbers?

The American side have only used captain's picks since the 1989 Ryder Cup so we will use that tournament as the starting point for our analysis.

The tables below show the wildcard picks on both sides for the last seven Ryder Cups with the results and points scored scored by each player.

1989 Belfry - EUROPE 14 USA 14

European captain Tony Jacklin is allowed three picks who enjoy contrasting fortunes. Bernhard Langer fails to score a point, Howard Clark wins two points in tandem with Mark James but is thrashed 8&7 by Tom Kite in his singles while Christy O'Connor emerges as one of the European heroes. Locked together with Fred Couples coming up the last he hits a fantastic two-iron to four feet which secures a valuable point. Tom Watson and Lanny Wadkins are the first US wildcard picks in the history of the event, the latter a surprise choice after missing six of his last eight cuts. They manage just 1.5pts out of five over the first two days but both win their singles after the Cup has already been retained by Europe to help the Americans pull level at 14-14.

1991 Kiawah Island - USA 14˝ EUROPE 13˝

Bernard Gallacher's wildcards virtually pick themselves as he names the experienced trio of Nick Faldo, Mark James and Jose Maria Olazabal. Ollie, in tandem with Seve Ballesteros, wins 3.5 points out of four over the first two days but loses his singles to Paul Azinger. James also plays all five matches, winning two points but Faldo fails to put anything on the board on the first two days before redeeming himself with a singles win over Ray Floyd, one of the two US wildcards. Floyd does make a contribution however, having earlier won two from three. Chip Beck loses twice on day one and is rested on the second day but comes out fighting in the singles to beat Ian Woosnam 3&1.

1993 Belfry - EUROPE 13 USA 15

Bernard Gallacher has no hesitation in picking Seve Ballesteros and Jose Maria Olazabal as his first two wildcard picks after their superb double act at Kiawah Island two years ago. But his final pick is a surprise as he opts for Joakim Haeggman who becomes the first Swede to taste Ryder Cup action. With four untested rookies in the side, the USA plump for veteran pair Ray Floyd and Lanny Wadkins. Ollie and Seve win two out of three together but crucially both lose their singles. Haeggman plays just once before the final day and loses but justifies his selection by scoring one of just three European singles wins on Sunday, a final hole victory over John Cook. Floyd and Wadkins both shine as they combine for five wins from seven matches and Floyd's singles victory over Olazabal is one of the key moments as the US wildcard picks make a big contribution to the US triumph.

1995 Oak Hill - USA 13˝ EUROPE 14˝

No Ryder Cup highlights the value of wildcard picks better than the 1995 showdown at Oak Hill. The defining moment comes when Euro wildcard Nick Faldo comes from one down with two to play to beat US wildcard Curtis Strange on the last hole - a victory that plays a huge part in Europe winning back the Cup. It completes a nightmare week for Strange who loses three out of three. The other two wildcard picks, Ian Woosnam and Fred Couples, also meet in the singles, their match ending halved. Couples had earlier won two from three but, with his picks managing just 2.5pts in seven matches, US skipper Lanny Wadkins is blasted in the US press for his selections.

1997 Valderrama - EUROPE 14˝ USA 13˝

After Jose Maria Olazabal steps in for the injured Miguel Angel Martin, European captain Seve Ballesteros is free to name Jesper Parnevik and Nick Faldo as his wildcards. Faldo, in partnership with debutant Lee Westwood, wins two points from four on the first two days but loses his singles to Jim Furyk. Parnevik has a win, a halve and a loss in three matches, his defeat a 5&4 hammering by Mark O'Meara in the singles. The US wildcards, Fred Couples and Lee Janzen, outperform their European counterparts but it's not enough to help America win back the Cup. Couples wins two from four, including an 8&7 destruction of Woosie in the singles while Janzenscores two out of three, which includes a come-from-behind singles victory over Olazabal.

1999 Brookline - USA 14˝ EUROPE 13˝

Jesper Parnevik is an automatic choice for Euro skipper Mark James but he raises eyebrows by selecting debutant Andrew Coltart as his second pick. Parnevik is one of the stars of the show over the first two days as he and young Spaniard Sergio Garcia rack up 3.5pts out of four. But looking tired he suffers a heavy 5&4 defeat against David Duval in the singles. The decision to play Coltart seems even stranger as James leaves him on the sidelines until the singles. To compound his misery Coltart draws Tiger Woods and loses 3&2. Ben Crenshaw chooses Tom Lehman and Steve Pate as the US wildcard picks and neither lets him down. Although played just twice over the first two days (both win one and lose one), Lehman and Pate score crucial singles wins as the US win the trophy after a thrilling final day fightback. Lehman takes out Lee Westwood 3&2 while Pate accounts for Miguel Angel Jimenez 2&1.

2002 The Belfry - EUROPE 15˝ USA 12˝

US-based Sergio Garcia and Jesper Parnevik get the nod for Europe but, despite their devasting partnership three years ago, Sam Torrance splits them up. Garcia is given the job of nursing an out-of-form Lee Westwood through his opening match and the pair hit it off immediately, going on to win three points out of four. Parnevik plays a more low-key role, winning one out of two on the opening two days and halving his singles with Tiger Woods when the match is already over. The American duo are used more sparingly by Curtis Strange although Scott Verplank does a good job, winning two points including his singles clash with Westwood. Paul Azinger, after playing just once before Sunday, pulls off a miraculous halve against Niclas Fasth by holing his bunker shot at the 18th.

2004 Oakland Hills - USA 9˝ EUROPE 18˝

It's pretty much a no-brainer for Bernhard Langer as he chooses Colin Montgomerie and Luke Donald. Monty again proves a colossus for the European team as he posts two wins on the opening day and, after a breather on Saturday afternoon, maintains his unbeaten record in singles by accounting for David Toms. Europe are nearly home and hosed by that stage but it's Monty who gets to hole the winning putt. Donald also justifies his selection by banking 2˝ points on the first two days although he's hammered in the singles by Chad Campbell. Whereas Europe's wildcards contribute 5˝ points, the USA pair of Stewart Cink and Jay Haas combine for just three. However, in the context of the shoddy performance put in by the Americans, it's not bad and only Chris DiMarco and Tiger Woods score more. It shouldn't disguise the fact though that the European picks have much more influence. Monty and Donald are two of the genuine stars of the European team while Cink and Haas disappear in the general US malaise and can't lift their teammates.

OVERALL RECORD OF WILDCARDS

SUMMARY

The 1995 Ryder Cup, when Nick Faldo beat Curtis Strange in their famous singles clash at Oak Hill, shows that the choice of wildcards can have a huge effect on the final outcome.

Strange, despite claiming one of his US Open wins at Oak Hill in the late 80s, went into the Ryder Cup without a victory in six years and with the winning habit lost it was perhaps no surprise that he caved in over the final holes against the greatest grinder in the game.

Christy O'Connor's singles victory over Fred Couples in 1989 is another great example of a wildcard playing a huge part in the outcome.

The Irishman's two-iron to the 18th green at the Belfry has gone down in Ryder Cup folklore and helped Europe halve the match and retain the trophy.

Although not as significant, Ray Floyd's singles win over fellow pick Jose Maria Olazabal in 1993 is also worthy of a mention. Had Ollie won their head-to-head the match would have finished in a 14-14 tie although America would still have retained the Cup.

In the 1999 Ryder Cup, the singles wins for US wildcards Tom Lehman and Steve Pate played a major part in the Americans' dramatic final day charge, especially with both European picks losing their singles.

At The Belfry four years ago wildcard Sergio Garcia played a key role in the European win by partnering Lee Westwood to a hat-trick of wins in the opening two days.

And two years ago Monty again proved a giant for Europe, holing the winning putt as Langer's men stormed to victory.

In terms of pure statistics the picture is a little less clear although there are a number of

interesting revelations.

Comparing the overall records of wildcards since both sides were allowed captain's picks in 1989, shows that the Americans have a clear edge.

Across those seven Ryder Cups, Europe have won 34pts from 71 matches and the US 27˝pts from 54. That gives the American wildcards a winning record of just under 51% and the Europeans an overall losing record of just under 48%.

The main reason for that 3% difference is the USA's far superior singles record.

Over 16 singles matches, the US picks have won nine, halved two and lost four for a winning record of 66.66%.

In contrast, Europe's win record is 34% after six wins, a halve and 12 losses.

Trying to find reasons for such a huge discrepancy isn't straightforward.

Certainly, the Americans have a better singles record in general over that period but the difference isn't as marked.

One possible reason is that the Europeans employ their wildcards more over the first two days and as a result they are left battle weary for the final day singles.

The stats support that. Since captain's picks were introduced in 1989, the average European wildcard plays 3.74 matches and the average American 3.37.

Of course the greatest chance of fatigue occurs in players who play all five matches and this is revealing.

Since 1989, eight European wildcards have played in every match whereas not one American pick has been involved in all five.

And of those eight over-employed Europeans, only one was fresh enough to win his singles - Faldo against Strange in 1995.

So one of the best betting strategies for this year's Ryder Cup would be to back Stewart Cink and Scott Verplank to win their singles and oppose Darren Clarke and Lee Westwood in theirs - especially if the European duo have played in all four previous matches.

The odds are hugely in your favour in terms of past Ryder Cups.